Physician Shortage Tracking Model - UNC at Chapel Hill

Physician Shortage Tracking Model Grant

Organization: The Physicians Foundation

Recipient: Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Award Date: July 12, 2011

Award Amount: Nearly $750,000

Status: One-time grant for specific project (awarded)

Geographic Scope: National

Focus Areas:

Physician workforce tracking

Health policy research

Data modeling for physician supply and demand

Healthcare services research

Project Description: Development of a dynamic, web-based projection model that can be continually updated with new data to track ongoing physician workforce needs across the country. The tool enables users to:

Estimate physician supply and demand within specific geographies and/or specialties

Incorporate multiple scenarios to evaluate physician workforce needs

Evaluate sensitivity of projections affected by policy changes

Background: Following the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act extending insurance to 30+ million people, policymakers and health providers needed access to real-time data on locations where physician shortages are most problematic at local, state, and national levels.

Data Sources: American Medical Association, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and other sources

Collaboration: UNC, The Physicians Foundation, and a clinical advisory group of practicing physicians worked collaboratively on model development

Contact: Erin P. Fraher, PhD (project lead at UNC); Dr. Alan Plummer (Physicians Foundation)